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Does the EU Commission suffer from optimism bias? (Part 2)
AgoraIn the previous blog we expressed concern that the European Commission may suffer from an optimism... rate itself may not come. Indeed, it is unlikely to come. This is the specter of a debt ratchet... it is not. Making optimistic scenarios is more common than you may think. One of the authors of these blogs
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Newsletter 373 - 10/03/2023
that the centre-right government has found itself in a tight spot, although the nature of this tragedy may end... now thought to be under consideration are May 14 or May 21. The thinking in the government.... If the elections are held on May 14 or 21 and a second vote is needed, this could be held on July 2
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Mitsotakis revives spectre of political instability as polls show ND lead diminished
PoliticsGreek PoliticsWith elections due on May 21 and the gap between the two main parties narrower than at any time... under which seats will be allocated in the May 21 contest could split the vote sufficiently to give... a “monstrosity” government or a “government of the losers”. Such a notion may have seemed fanciful when
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ND quick out of blocks as election race gets underway officially
PoliticsGreek Politicsasked for Parliament to be dissolved ahead of the May 21 vote, and the ruling New Democracy party... of numbers that might allow them to form a viable coalition after the May 21 vote, while for ND... record positively, up from 32 in March – another sign that ND may be back in favour with some previously
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Polls give ND clear lead as SYRIZA struggles to shape narrative
PoliticsGreek PoliticsNew Democracy party looks set to win a second term, though it may have to wait for a second run... to Greek Solution. These results would effectively lead to a deadlock in the May 21 elections... that such a development would make the country ungovernable, suggesting that the state may not even be able
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Mitsotakis eyes majority in second vote as SYRIZA reels from crushing defeat
PoliticsGreek Politics, most of the headaches following the May 21 result will be felt in the SYRIZA camp after the left... leader, the result also suggests that SYRIZA time as the main opposition party may come to an end... Androulakis but also suggests that centre-left voters who may have backed SYRIZA in the past feel
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Tsipras identifies failings, tries to rally SYRIZA as Androulakis attempts to tread own path
PoliticsGreek Politicstheir choice in the last days before May 21 or even on the day of the election. While the observations... will also have another goal during this campaign, even though party officials may not speak about... the extent of New Democracy’s dominance on May 21, some former PASOK voters who backed Mistotakis might
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Industrial production rises by 4.2 pct in April thanks to growth in electricity supply
EconomyMacroeconomybusiness surveys for May, industry confidence stayed positive for the fifth successive month though... territory in May, although it fell marginally to 51.5 points, from 52.4 points in April. This is the fourth month that the conditions in the Greek manufacturing sector have improved, though May
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Newsletter 386 - 23/06/2023
almost 41 pct on May 21, for the conservatives to fail to elect more than 150 of the 300 MPs. The only... of the May 21 elections indicated that seven parties will enter Parliament after June 25. Compared... beating in May, losing by more than 20 points. Alexis Tsipras is fighting for his political future
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Newsletter 387 - 30/06/2023
outperformance of 2 billion euros up to May thanks to VAT and income taxes beating targets. However... The pace of credit growth continued to slow in May, rising by 3.1 pct year-on-year (YoY), from 3.9 pct in April. The trend had been declining since last December’s 6.3 pct growth and May was half
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