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Newsletter 346 - 15/07/2022
pct this year, up from the previous estimate of 3.5 pct in the spring forecasts at the end of May. Back in May, the Commission had significantly revised down the Greek outlook from 4.9 pct... in vehicle registrations slowed down in June to 2 pct year-on-year, from 21.3 pct in May. Car sales were
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Deposits rise to highest level since end-2011 as corporates grow by 10 pct in June
EconomyMacroeconomyeuros, from 1.31 billion euros in May, and 1.35 billion euros in April, based on Bank of Greece (BoG... growth in June was up by 6.9 percent, from 6.3 percent in May and 5.8 percent in April... in May, and 178.24 billion euros in April, reflecting corporate deposits of 45.77 billion euros
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Balance of payments shows shipping on course for bumper year, but economic benefits unclear
EconomyFeaturesShipping provided the one bright spot in Greece’s trade balance in May, with transportation... pct. In the five months between January and May, transportation receipts totalled 9.2 billion euros.... Addressing the Greek shipping community in May, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis made clear
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Where is Odysseus? Part 6 - Potential real GDP
Agora. In blog 19, we showed that Greece may expect somewhat higher employment levels, in persons, than... potential growth estimate and that in 2018 may seem small to many readers, but this difference keeps..., an aspirational assumption; it is not an economic certainty, and may not even be welfare optimal
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Does the EU Commission suffer from optimism bias? (Part 1)
Agoraand for the EU27 as well as the Euro Area as a whole. We may mention in particular three helpful and detailed... on Daniel Kahneman’s important book “Thinking, Fast, and Slow” to suggest that the EC may suffer... 2100 (see Table 1, below). We may also point out that the “high” growth scenario in the Book, compared
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Govt looks to contain political fallout from crash, prepares change to poll plans
PoliticsGreek Politicsgovernment has found itself in a tight spot, although the nature of this tragedy may end up... on Wednesday that the dates now under consideration are May 14 or May 21. The thinking... anger. If the elections are held on May 14 or 21 and a second vote is needed, this could be held
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Does the EU Commission suffer from optimism bias? (Part 2)
AgoraIn the previous blog we expressed concern that the European Commission may suffer from an optimism... rate itself may not come. Indeed, it is unlikely to come. This is the specter of a debt ratchet... it is not. Making optimistic scenarios is more common than you may think. One of the authors of these blogs
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Newsletter 373 - 10/03/2023
that the centre-right government has found itself in a tight spot, although the nature of this tragedy may end... now thought to be under consideration are May 14 or May 21. The thinking in the government.... If the elections are held on May 14 or 21 and a second vote is needed, this could be held on July 2
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Mitsotakis revives spectre of political instability as polls show ND lead diminished
PoliticsGreek PoliticsWith elections due on May 21 and the gap between the two main parties narrower than at any time... under which seats will be allocated in the May 21 contest could split the vote sufficiently to give... a “monstrosity” government or a “government of the losers”. Such a notion may have seemed fanciful when
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SYRIZA's coalition options scrutinised as Tsipras remains focussed on first place
PoliticsGreek Politicsthe May 21 elections is being scrutinised after seemingly contradictory remarks by the left-wing party... is that SYRIZA will seek to form a governing coalition if it comes first on May 21, contrasting... coalition if it comes first on May 21. Although there does appear to be some inconsistency between
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