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The national elections held on May 21 in Greece produced a landslide victory for the ruling centre-right party, which posted a winning margin of more than 20 points over its main rival, left-wing SYRIZA.
As the dust settles from this resounding victory for Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, The Agora host Nick Malkoutzis gathers with MacroPolis co-founder Yiannis Mouzakis and features editor Georgia Nakou to discuss what contributed to this result.
They examine what New Democracy got right, where it went wrong for SYRIZA and what the coming weeks could bring for centre-left PASOK as it eyes a comeback.
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Useful reading
Greece’s conservatives achieve big victory but fall short of majority - https://www.politico.eu/article/greece-election-mitsotakis-new-democracy-syriza-vote/
Mitsotakis needs new elections, SYRIZA a new direction - https://agendapublica.elpais.com/noticia/18602/mitsotakis-needs-new-elections-syriza-new-direction
SYRIZA’s strategic defeat calls for strategic decisions - https://www.ekathimerini.com/opinion/1211639/syrizas-strategic-defeat-calls-for-strategic-decisions/
PASOK emerges as the real big winner - https://www.ekathimerini.com/opinion/1211640/pasok-emerges-as-the-real-big-winner/
1 Comment(s)
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Posted by:
Hello MacroPolis,
Firstly thank you for the updates on Greece in English and to Phoebe and Nick for the Agora podcast. Listening to the latest episode, which I thought was a thorough analysis of the last general election in Greece, I was struck by the fact that there was no discussion of why opinon polls are so often wrong. The highest estimate I heard before the election was for ND to receive 36% of the votes with some polls at around 33-34%. They received around 40.8% I believe, this difference is well above the ‘margin of error’ that we are often told about.
Of course this failure of opinion polling is not confined to Greece, the nearly coincidental election in Turkey also confounded the pollsters with the 49.5 to 45% win for Erdogan over Kiliçdaroglu being the almost exact reverse of many poll predictions. Whether in the U.K. in 2017 or the various U.S. predictons of Gore and Kerry beating Bush jnr. opinion polls now seem to have a long history of failure. Do you think that there is something wrong with their basic method and, if so, why do newspapers, political parties etc. bother to commission them other than to keep the political pot boiling?
Thank you for any consideration of this question.
Τις καλύτερες ευχές μου
Nigel Rees