MacroPolis

The ballots have been cast and the votes counted. The outcome of the early general election in Germany has various winners and some significant losers. First and foremost among the winners is the level of voter participation. More than 83 percent of eligible voters cast their ballot, representing an increase by over six percentage points when compared to the previous elections for the federal parliament – the Bundestag - in September 2021.

Voter dissatisfaction with politics in general and political parties in specific did not translate into staying away from polling stations. Instead, citizens across the country cast their ballot with a clear demand for change, even if they widely differ in how this change in politics and government should look like.

The first loser of these elections are opinion pollsters, who yet again failed at approximating the likely outcome. They did not project the leading opposition parties -  the Christian Democrats CDU in coalition with their Bavarian sister party CSU – to receive less than 30 percent of the vote. With 28.5 percent they recorded their second-worst result in Germany since 1945. If the Chancellor-candidate of the CDU – Friedrich Merz claims to be a winner, it is a weak victory and a challenging mandate to form the next government.

For months, opinion polls had seen the governing Social Democrats (SPD) of Chancellor Olaf Scholz at 15 percent. In fact, they received 16.4 percent, slightly better than feared by its dwindling supporters, but still a historic low. The SPD is now only the third-largest party in the Bundestag, a political embarrassment which will lead to profound changes in personnel and policy.

The Green party, in a minority government with the SPD since the break-up of the so-called traffic light coalition in November 2024, lost three percentage points and only reached 11.7 percent. In particular young voters and citizens in the eastern regions of Germany abandoned the Greens. Concerns about climate change and demands for energy transition did not lead to a voter migration towards the environmentalists.

The third party in this former coalition, the Free Democrats (FDP), who were widely seen as responsible for deliberately organising the termination of the coalition, were voted out of parliament, failing to clear the mandatory five percent threshold. Its leader, the former finance minister Christian Lindner, promptly announced his resignation after the polls closed.

Two parties from opposite fields of the political spectrum can claim victory. For the first time in post-1945 Germany, a party of the extreme far-right, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), achieved second place in the Bundestag. With 20.8 percent of the vote, the AfD doubled its share compared to 2021. It managed to win first past the post constituencies across the country, not only in the eastern states of Germany where the AfD is now the leading party.

The second party having reason to celebrate and the surprise of the elections is Die Linke (The Left) which reached 8.7 percent. Only two months ago they were projected to only reach three to four percent. But with a clear-cut electoral campaign focused on social issues such as the lack of affordable housing, lower energy prices and “tax the rich” slogans, they articulated demands that resonated with voters looking for stark political alternatives left-of-center. Die Linke scored the highest share of votes among first-time voters, an extraordinary achievement. A second leftist party, which has only existed for a year and is a secession from Die Linke, the BSW, failed to make it into the Bundestag with 4.97 per cent.

What lessons does this general election in Germany offer? The results illustrate the growing political diversity and fragmentation of the party system. Many new voters were mobilised to cast their ballot. They did so in a manner that ushered in a parliament with six parties. The formation of a coalition government will be politically complex. Three, possibly four parties may be necessary to have a stable majority in parliament and keep the surging AfD away from making offers to enter into government.

Time is essential in the coming weeks. Given the political challenges and demands articulated by the Trump administration during the past weeks vis-à-vis Germany, negotiations to form a sustainable majority in the Bundestag will be intricate.

As the situation in neighboring Austria illustrates, where parties are still trying to negotiate a coalition government after elections in September (!) 2024, the newly elected political representatives in Berlin will be aware about avoiding similar drawn out talks and the risks of the ensuing consequences in case of failure.

Much is in flux in German politics. The times when the former chancellor Angela Merkel argued that “there are no alternatives” are definitely over. How the available political alternatives can translate into a governing coalition that can hold for the duration of four years remains to be seen. The electorate has given its new members of the Bundestag a complex task to resolve. The coming weeks will show if they can meet the challenge.

*Jens Bastian is a former fellow of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin.