MacroPolis

In April 2025, European countries reacted with shock and confusion to President Donald Trump’s initial tariff announcements on “Liberation Day.” A 90-day reprieve was subsequently granted to EU member states, allowing the European Commission to negotiate a fast-track framework tariff agreement with the Trump administration.

In late July 2025, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reached a compromise 15% baseline US tariff rate with Trump at his Scottish golf resort. The handshake agreement was subsequently formalized in a joint statement (four-pages!) a month later.

The reactions to their presumed tariff truce ranged from relief to criticism. In Greece, the response was predominantly positive. Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis hailed the agreement as a success, preventing a “trade war with chain reactions” and preserving “transatlantic unity.”

The new baseline tariff retroactively came into effect on August 7, 2025. However, individual companies across EU member states are lobbying the Trump administration for export-rebate programs to reduce tariffs on goods manufactured in US factories.

While the 15% levy is lower than the original 30% rate, Greek producers and exporters will face adverse effects. In 2024, the US ranked as Greece’s fifth-largest export destination, with 65% of Greek exports going to EU member states. Larger exporters with established networks are better positioned to absorb the additional costs than smaller cooperatives, such as local oil producers in the Peloponnese.

Some EU sectors, in particular car manufacturing, avoided worst-case scenarios. US tariffs on cars imported from the EU will be reduced from 27,5% to 15% after the EU has taken steps to follow through on its commitments to lower tariffs on imported American goods, e.g. on agricultural products, including bison, tree nuts, dairy and many types of seafood.

Other sectors —aviation —benefit from bilateral zero-for-zero tariffs. However, Greek companies are unlikely to profit from these exemptions due to limited export volumes in these industries. EU aluminium and steel exports remain subject to a 50% US tariff.

Greek Export Configuration to the US

According to the United Nations COMTRADE database, Greek goods exports to the US reached USD 2.61 billion (€2.4 billion) in 2024, while imports from the US totalled €2.16 billion. This marked a 14% year-on-year increase, reversing a 2.1% decline in 2023. For the first five months of 2025, exports reached USD 908.4 million.

Greek exports accounted for 0.43% of the EU’s total USD 606 billion in goods exported to the US in 2024. US Census data, which differs slightly due to nominal, non-seasonally adjusted calculations, reported Greek exports at USD 2.243 billion in 2024.

Over the past decade, Greek exports to the US have more than doubled, rising from USD 1.24 billion in 2013 to USD 2.61 billion in 2024. In 2024, Greece achieved a trade surplus of €268.19 million with the US - a modest but meaningful benchmark.

Table 1: Top Five Greek Export Categories to the US (2024)

Source: Trading Economics

Greek agri-food exports to the US include virgin olive oil, feta cheese, yogurt, wine, ouzo, and Kalamata olives. Disputes persist over tariff exemptions for US agricultural products, with Brussels and Washington offering differing interpretations of the framework agreement.

Initial Impact Assessment

Quantifying the impact of the 15% tariffs on Greek GDP and corporate activity remains challenging. According to the Bank of Greece’s 2024–2025 Monetary Policy Report, a 10% horizontal tariff hike could reduce Greek exports by 1.7% in real terms and lower GDP by 0.4% through 2026. With the actual tariff now at 15%, the impact may be significantly higher.

UBS ranked Greece fourth among the most exposed emerging markets for US tariffs in the EMEA region, behind Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland.

Mitigation Strategies

Greece can lobby the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Trade (DG Trade) for specific exemptions. Instruments such as the Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) offer regulatory protection and potential tariff dispensation. Greek feta cheese, for example, was included in a 2020 EU-China agreement protecting 100 European Geographical Indications.

During Trump’s first term, Greek agri-food products like olive oil, cheese, and wine received exemption status. However, competition among EU member states for such exemptions may undermine a coherent EU approach in 2025.

Greece must diversify its export markets. While this objective predates Trump’s tariff policy, structural challenges and pricing deficits make rapid expansion difficult. Deputy Prime Minister Kostis Hatzidakis identified India and China as alternative destinations. However, bilateral trade with China remains hugely imbalanced, and India’s protectionist stance poses additional trade expansion hurdles.

International Context

As of September 2025, the Trump administration had concluded tariff agreements with the U.K., Japan, Vietnam, the EU, and South Korea. Agreements with Mexico, Canada, China, and India remain unresolved. India faces threats of 100% tariffs due to its continued import of discounted Russian crude oil, some of which is transported via Greek-owned ships.

It is noteworthy that the EU-US tariff agreement excludes the World Trade Organization (WTO), which the Trump administration has systematically side lined. The agreement still requires ratification by the European Council and Parliament. The current (written) version is not yet a legally enforceable pact.

The tariff arrangement includes removing digital trade barriers by the EU against providers such as Netflix and Amazon; a major concession towards U.S. technological companies. The Commission in Brussels has also committed to introduce changes to EU supply chain legislation.

Outlook

Despite the framework agreement, Trump’s tariff policy remains unpredictable. EU member states must prepare for recurring tariff threats and seek carve-out exemptions. Moreover, in late August, a Federal Circuit Court of Appeals in the US struck down parts of Trump’s global tariffs, thus adding uncertainty to elements of the bilateral trade agreement. The legal matter will ultimately have to be decided by the US Supreme Court.

Discrepancies persist in interpreting the agreement. The EU views the 15% as a ceiling, while the US sees it as a baseline. Many products still face higher tariffs, including tobacco (350%), peanut butter (131.8%), and electrical heaters (50%). See the full list at Global Trade Alert.

Looking forward, Greek businesses will continue to struggle how to price their products and services to the US. The tariff uncertainties now include how to charge their US customers? Rethinking pricing procedures is now part of companies’ tariff administration. In a word, nobody can be sure that 15% is the final levy? Customs’ brokers will be in high demand.

Greek exporters will have to double efforts to secure additional tariff relief. They must also act swiftly to secure new markets. Currency fluctuations may offer partial relief, with a stronger US dollar mitigating tariff costs.

US companies operating in Greece, such as Pfizer and Microsoft, may also face tariffs if their products are classified as EU imports. Additionally, Greece’s steel imports from countries like China and Turkey may be affected by a proposed EU-US “steel wall.”

The Trump administration is equally targeting “trans-shipped goods,” imposing 40% tariffs on items processed through third countries. This could impact Greek exports involving partial reassembly of Chinese goods. Adding to these tariff challenges, president Trump abruptly terminated via executive order in late August the so-called ‘de minimis exemption’. This concerned a trade law provision that allowed shipments valued under USD 800 to enter the US tariff-free and with less administrative oversight.

*From 2022 to end-2024 Jens Bastian worked in Berlin at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). He is an independent economic consultant and contributor to MacroPolis.