MacroPolis

We are pleased to share the latest briefing MacroPolis has authored on behalf of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES). It is titled ‘Is the Greek Green Transition Running Out of Power?’ and was written by our energy expert Georgia Nakou.

It is an in‑depth assessment of Greece’s progress toward its energy and climate goals and the political forces now reshaping the country’s energy strategy.

The paper traces how Greece moved from the 2019 pledge of “a new, ambitious national strategy on energy and climate change” to a more cautious, industry‑focused approach in recent years. It also highlights the growing tension between headline successes - such as the near‑completion of de‑lignitisation - and the structural obstacles slowing the wider transition.

Key insights from the briefing

• Renewables are expanding, but not fast enough. Despite RES generation growing at nearly 10% annually and solar capacity already surpassing the 2025 NECP projection, Greece is not on track to meet its 2030 targets.
• Natural gas is regaining ground. Gas covered almost 40% of electricity demand in 2025, pushing the power sector off its emissions‑reduction trajectory. Greece is set to miss its 2025 power‑sector emissions target.
• Policy direction has shifted. Rising energy costs, industrial pressure, and geopolitical realignments have prompted a pivot toward hydrocarbons, LNG infrastructure, and offshore exploration. The government’s recent calls for looser EU climate targets underscore this recalibration.
• Implementation gaps are widening. Storage deployment remains stalled, offshore wind has yet to take off, and sectors beyond electricity - transport, buildings, industry -continue to lag.
• The outlook is uncertain. With no political actor offering a fully formed alternative energy vision ahead of 2027, the risk is that momentum continues to slow.

Why this matters

Greece’s energy transition is at a crossroads. The choices made now - on infrastructure, market design, and climate ambition - will shape the country’s economic competitiveness, energy security, and environmental performance for decades.

Our briefing aims to cut through the noise and provide a clear, evidence‑based picture of where things stand and what is at stake.

Our paper for FES can be viewed here, or downloaded here.