Agora
Posts by Bob Traa & Jens Bastian
Macroeconomic fundamentals for Greece
Countries can get caught up in the hamster wheel of daily noise. The cyclical ups and downs can become such a fixation that little else makes it onto the radar screen. Citizens then get a sense that the country goes around and round, without anything really changing over time (“…if only we had investment grade…”). Getting stuck in cyclical thinking is a trap.
Contributor: Bob Traa & Jens Bastian
Categories: Politics (373), Economy (316), Greece (477)
Does the EU Commission suffer from optimism bias? (Part 2)
In the previous blog we expressed concern that the European Commission may suffer from an optimism bias. We noted that the long-run outlook for real GDP growth in the EU27 as a whole appeared to be based on too-favorable labor productivity growth assumptions.
Contributor: Bob Traa & Jens Bastian
Categories: Europe (279), Economy (316)
Does the EU Commission suffer from optimism bias? (Part 1)
This blog post is based on Chapter 8 of a new book: “The Macroeconomy of the European Union,” by Bob Traa, available on Amazon.com. The book examines structural considerations for potential growth, fiscal and debt developments, and the fiscal rules in the EU27 and in each individual member state, including Greece.
Contributor: Bob Traa & Jens Bastian
Categories: Europe (279), Economy (316)
Tracking Greece's fiscal performance
The Covid-19 pandemic is slowly fading into the background, with the energy disruption from Russia’s invasion in Ukraine taking its place as the most acute challenge for economic and fiscal policy. In this final blog for 2022, we want to take stock of where the budgetary situation stands, and what we can say about underlying trends.
Contributor: Bob Traa & Jens Bastian
Categories: Economy (316), Greece (477)
Reflections on Greece's balance of payments
The current account. We can think of GDP as income (Y) from the production and supply of goods and services: production determines “income.” On the demand side, we can distinguish four categories: consumption (C), investment (I), exports (X), and imports (M). Thus, when demand is equal to supply: Y = C + I + X - M.
Contributor: Bob Traa & Jens Bastian
Categories: Europe (279), Economy (316), Greece (477)